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Home Insights Financial & Economic Analysis — December 2025
Monthly Briefing

Financial & Economic Analysis — December 2025

Aaron Russell-Davison Editor · Managing Director, SRP International
Prepared by·SRP Research Designed by·SRP Studio Editor·Aaron Russell-Davison — Managing Director, SRP International Period·December 2025

Executive Summary

Economic Overview

Sri Lanka continued a strong economic recovery in 2025 despite disruptions from Cyclone Ditwah, with GDP growth estimated to be 4.5% year on year. Fiscal performance improved significantly, with tax revenue reaching a record Rs. 2,203 Bn and total government revenue rose 35 percent in the first 11 months, while the primary surplus nearly doubled. The external sector also strengthened, supported by higher exports, a 21% increase in worker remittances, and gross official reserves rising to around USD 6 Bn by end-November.

Equity Markets

The Colombo Stock Exchange recorded a standout year in 2025, as both international and domestic investors bought into the recovery story. The ASPI delivered a return of 41.90%, while the S&P SL20 gained 26.60%. Both indices declined in December, after some year end profit taking, but the overall result was very positive.

Inflation

Sri Lanka's Colombo Consumer Price Index–based year-on-year headline inflation remained unchanged at 2.1% in December, with food inflation steady at 3.0 percent despite sharp post-disaster price increases in several vegetable categories. The non-food inflation edged up to 1.8% from 1.7% in November.

Exchange Rates

In 2025, the Sri Lankan rupee weakened against the US dollar, recording an annual depreciation of 5.95% after two years of appreciation and broad stability. The exchange rate adjusted within a more flexible policy framework amid normalising import demand, external debt-related outflows, and reduced intervention. More normalized economic conditions have led to more normalized FX behaviours. In December, the rupee depreciated modestly, but we are likely to see a range bound currency with a slightly weakening bias.

Crude Oil Prices

Brent crude prices declined by 2.4% month-on-month in December 2025 to about USD 61 per barrel. Overall, global oil prices in 2025 were volatile but largely remained within the USD 60–70 per barrel range, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions, strong non-OPEC supply growth, and shifting demand amid slower global economic growth.

Tourist Arrivals

In 2025, Sri Lanka's tourism industry reached a historic milestone with 2.36 Mn visitors, a 15.1% year-on-year growth, surpassing the previous record set in 2018. This growth follows a difficult period marked by the 2019 Easter attacks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and economic volatility. December 2025 saw the strongest monthly performance in the country's tourism history, with 258,928 arrivals, marking a 4.2% increase from the previous year. This augurs well for the year ahead.

Market Statistics

Month EndingDecember-2025November-2025Change (%)
All Share Price Index22,624.3122,712.82-0.39%
S&P 20 Index6,157.386,267.03-1.75%
Consumer Services (Hotels)664.74690.15-3.68%
Real Estates2,859.522,875.85-0.57%
Capital Goods (Industrial)2,477.062,412.752.67%
Food Bev & Tob (Plantations and Other)2,349.922,395.61-1.91%
Materials3,202.943,051.524.96%
Banks1,790.051,826.14-1.98%
Telecommunication Services2,466.302,413.762.18%
Market Capitalisation (SLRs. Bn)8,068.628,122.78-0.67%

International Markets

MarketDecember-2025November-2025Change (%)
STI Index (Singapore)4,646.214,523.962.70%
DAX (Germany)24,490.4123,836.792.74%
Nikkei (Japan)50,339.4850,253.910.17%
FTSE 100 (UK)9,931.389,720.512.17%
Dow Industrial (US)48,063.2947,716.420.73%

Exchange Rates

CurrencyDecember-2025November-2025Change (%)
Euro363.96356.822.00%
SNG$241.35237.431.65%
AUD207.51201.263.10%
GBP417.31407.692.36%
US$309.99308.030.64%

Quoted as LKR per unit of foreign currency; a higher figure indicates depreciation of the rupee.

Commodity Prices

CommodityDecember-2025November-2025October-2025
Brent Crude $/bbl61.0162.5164.72
Gold $/Troy oz4,318.204,213.403,998.70
Tea $/Kg2.882.993.01
Rubber, TSR20 $/Kg1.741.711.71

Interest Rates

Rate typeDecember-2025November-2025Change (%)
AWPR9.078.644.98%
AWDR—6.77—
Treasury Bill Yield
3 Months7.647.541.33%
6 Months7.897.761.68%
12 Months8.097.922.15%
Treasury Bond Yield
5 Years9.809.661.45%
10 Years10.7010.71-0.09%

AWDR = Commercial Bank Average Weighted Deposit Rate. AWPR = Commercial Bank Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate.

Inflation (Headline)

InflationDecember-2025November-2025Change (%)
Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI)2.102.100.00%

Daily Indices

DayASPIS&P SL 20
Dec 1, 202522,087.076,085.87
Dec 2, 202522,258.896,137.79
Dec 3, 202521,885.136,030.66
Dec 5, 202521,602.495,925.63
Dec 8, 202521,594.865,926.64
Dec 9, 202522,099.726,004.11
Dec 10, 202522,422.436,084.06
Dec 11, 202522,459.286,095.15
Dec 12, 202522,508.516,097.66
Dec 15, 202522,281.436,052.30
Dec 16, 202522,339.216,071.12
Dec 17, 202522,328.896,070.33
Dec 18, 202522,323.546,066.43
Dec 19, 202522,150.276,056.54
Dec 22, 202521,920.006,014.36
Dec 23, 202521,964.856,011.31
Dec 24, 202521,968.186,015.48
Dec 26, 202522,091.116,041.53
Dec 29, 202522,175.376,037.79
Dec 30, 202522,480.566,111.35
Dec 31, 202522,596.436,157.38

Volume & Turnover

DayTurnoverVolume
Dec 1, 20255,236,140,531.45236,396,326.00
Dec 2, 20254,006,484,894.40100,322,438.00
Dec 3, 20253,779,754,750.80171,278,507.00
Dec 5, 20253,968,854,122.30132,091,170.00
Dec 8, 20252,839,068,828.4083,226,769.00
Dec 9, 20253,882,174,588.85105,788,649.00
Dec 10, 20256,215,764,180.80184,951,269.00
Dec 11, 20255,554,419,554.35170,823,732.00
Dec 12, 20253,025,450,083.1076,802,891.00
Dec 15, 20252,228,177,982.4081,299,446.00
Dec 16, 20252,856,764,150.7577,189,916.00
Dec 17, 20253,325,498,710.40157,308,058.00
Dec 18, 20252,344,773,303.7557,137,074.00
Dec 19, 20253,454,156,434.0575,139,013.00
Dec 22, 20252,976,156,804.4081,900,811.00
Dec 23, 20252,561,097,795.00102,281,468.00
Dec 24, 20254,101,656,308.30147,195,607.00
Dec 26, 20252,708,240,513.9091,429,332.00
Dec 29, 20253,707,257,926.05108,420,561.00
Dec 30, 20253,428,411,983.25101,360,302.00
Dec 31, 20254,654,880,726.60122,809,973.00

Tea Auction Prices (USD)

Month20252024202320222021202020192018
Jan2.732.662.772.862.682.512.543.10
Feb2.692.712.702.792.562.362.383.00
Mar2.692.692.692.612.432.132.382.84
April2.913.032.963.242.672.362.652.95
May3.023.202.712.992.712.512.733.02
June2.993.222.692.962.702.842.562.87
July3.023.302.473.312.653.042.582.89
Aug3.043.222.833.372.723.152.632.77
Sep2.943.272.853.332.733.082.542.67
Oct3.013.152.763.152.783.002.582.74
Nov2.993.092.743.052.832.782.612.70
Dec2.882.962.712.952.822.652.572.62

Tourist Arrivals

Tourist Arrivals2025202420232022202120202019
January252,761208,253102,54582,3271,682228,434244,239
February240,217218,350107,63996,5073,366207,507252,033
March229,298209,181125,495106,5004,58171,370244,328
April174,608148,867105,49862,9804,1680166,975
May132,919112,12883,30930,2071,497037,802
June138,241113,470100,38832,8561,614063,072
July200,244187,810143,03947,2932,4290115,701
August198,235164,609136,40537,7605,0400143,587
September158,971122,140111,93829,80213,5470108,575
October165,193135,907109,19942,02622,7710118,743
November212,906184,158151,49659,75944,2940176,984
December258,928248,592210,35291,96189,506393241,663

Sri Lanka closed 2025 with a record 2.36 Mn visitors (up 15.1% YoY) — and December was the strongest month in the country's tourism history, with 258,928 arrivals.

Primary Deposit & Lending Rates

Period (Year Month)AWDRAWPR
Dec 2025—9.07
Nov 20256.778.64
Oct 20256.798.31
Sep 20256.808.10
Aug 20256.827.97
Jul 20256.888.07
Jun 20256.938.11
May 20256.988.35
Apr 20257.088.36
Mar 20257.158.43
Feb 20257.218.36
Jan 20257.318.56

CCPI Year on Year (%)

Month (Year Month)HeadlineFoodNon Food
Dec 20252.103.001.80
Nov 20252.103.001.70
Oct 20252.103.501.40
Sep 20251.502.900.70
Aug 20251.202.000.80
Jul 2025-0.301.50-1.20
Jun 2025-0.604.30-2.80
May 2025-0.705.20-3.30
Apr 2025-2.001.30-3.60
Mar 2025-2.600.60-4.10
Feb 2025-4.20-0.20-6.10
Jan 2025-4.00-2.60-4.70
Dec 2024-1.700.80-3.00

External Sector

Values are in USD million.

Month (Year Month)Official ReservesWorkers' RemittancesEarnings from Tourism
Nov 20256,034.00673.40251.60
Oct 20256,216.00712.00186.10
Sep 20256,244.00695.70182.90
Aug 20256,178.00680.80258.90
Jul 20256,147.00697.30318.50
Jun 20256,081.00635.70169.50
May 20256,286.00641.70164.10
Apr 20256,327.00646.10256.70
Mar 20256,531.00693.30354.00
Feb 20256,086.00548.10367.60
Jan 20256,065.00573.00400.70
Dec 20246,122.00613.80362.10
Nov 20246,451.00530.00273.00
Month (Year Month)ExportsImportsFuel ImportsImport (Non Fuel)
Nov 20251,047.801,778.50333.301,445.20
Oct 20251,149.402,156.80357.801,799.00
Sep 20251,138.502,048.60440.701,607.90
Aug 20251,282.301,696.50255.201,441.30
Jul 20251,302.201,882.20269.701,612.50
Jun 20251,141.801,682.10331.501,350.60
May 20251,034.701,507.20252.801,254.40
Apr 2025968.401,685.90354.701,331.20
Mar 20251,241.701,637.30360.701,276.60
Feb 20251,052.901,464.20278.401,185.80
Jan 20251,052.801,785.50417.701,367.80
Dec 20241,101.801,924.50434.001,490.50

This briefing is prepared by SRP Research for general information only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. Figures are reproduced from the SRP International Financial & Economic Analysis for December 2025 (external-sector figures to November 2025) and are subject to revision.

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