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Home Insights Financial & Economic Analysis — July 2026
Monthly Briefing

Financial & Economic Analysis — July 2026

Aaron Russell-Davison Editor · Managing Director, SRP International
Prepared by·SRP Research Designed by·SRP Studio Editor·Aaron Russell-Davison — Managing Director, SRP International Period·July 2026

Executive Summary

Equity Markets

The Colombo Stock Exchange recorded a weaker performance in July 2026, following the relatively stable performance of June. The All Share Price Index declined by approximately 5.09% MoM to close at 21,129.21, while the S&P SL20 decreased by around 4.27% MoM to end at 5,939.98. This retracement reflects more cautious conditions, rather than a specific event.

Inflation

Inflationary pressures accelerated in July, with CCPI headline inflation increasing to 7.3% YoY from 6.8% YoY in June. Food inflation increased to 6.3% YoY in July from 3.6% YoY in the previous month. Non-food inflation recorded a 7.8% YoY rise in July, largely linked to increasing housing costs.

Exchange Rates

The Sri Lankan rupee remained relatively stable against the US dollar in July, with the USD/LKR exchange rate appreciating marginally by approximately 0.2% MoM to close at LKR 336.05/USD, compared with LKR 336.66/USD at the end of June. The relatively stable USD/LKR movement was supported by improved foreign currency inflows, including tourism earnings and export proceeds, although external uncertainties and global dollar movements continued to drag any appreciation.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices rebounded in July, reversing part of the sharp decline recorded in June. Brent crude increased by approximately 20.8% MoM to trade near USD 87.86/bbl, compared with around USD 72.75/bbl at the end of June. Renewed concerns over global supply conditions are now a familiar story. Energy markets remained highly sensitive and will provide further volatility in 2026.

Tourist Arrivals

Tourism to Sri Lanka recorded 196,845 arrivals during the month, a decline of approximately 1.7% YoY compared with 200,244 arrivals in July 2025. Cumulative tourist arrivals for January–July 2026 reached 1,343,418, compared with 1,368,288 during the same period last year. Despite the year-on-year moderation, July recorded the highest monthly arrivals since February 2026, indicating a recovery in seasonal travel demand. India remained the leading source market, followed by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, China, and France.

Market Statistics

Month EndingJuly-2026June-2026Change (%)
All Share Price Index21,129.2122,263.28-5.09%
S&P 20 Index5,939.986,205.05-4.27%
Consumer Services (Hotels)516.09550.52-6.25%
Real Estates3,367.053,642.56-7.56%
Capital Goods (Industrial)2,270.352,362.97-3.92%
Food Bev & Tob (Plantations and Other)2,284.402,371.01-3.65%
Materials2,994.183,110.57-3.74%
Banks1,683.741,764.15-4.56%
Telecommunication Services3,491.223,643.00-4.17%
Market Capitalisation (SLRs. Bn)8,040.438,063.72-0.29%

International Markets

MarketJuly-2026June-2026Change (%)
STI Index (Singapore)5,628.505,170.658.85%
DAX (Germany)25,629.2424,995.812.53%
Nikkei (Japan)64,362.0270,062.32-8.14%
FTSE 100 (UK)10,868.0510,497.123.53%
Dow Industrial (US)52,485.0352,319.200.32%

Exchange Rates

CurrencyJuly-2026June-2026Change (%)
Euro386.89383.900.78%
SNG$261.76260.230.59%
AUD236.01231.192.08%
GBP452.15445.611.47%
US$336.05336.66-0.18%

Quoted as LKR per unit of foreign currency; a higher figure indicates depreciation of the rupee.

Commodity Prices

CommodityJuly-2026June-2026May-2026
Brent Crude $/bbl87.8672.7591.17
Gold $/Troy oz4,044.004,005.604,541.30
Tea $/Kg2.982.973.02
Rubber, TSR20 $/Kg2.142.252.21

Interest Rates

Rate typeJuly-2026June-2026Change (%)
AWPR10.6710.392.69%
AWDR—7.20—
Treasury Bill Yield
3 Months9.879.494.00%
6 Months10.139.625.30%
12 Months10.159.714.53%
Treasury Bond Yield
5 Years11.7210.927.33%
10 Years12.2111.744.00%

AWDR = Commercial Bank Average Weighted Deposit Rate. AWPR = Commercial Bank Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate.

Inflation (Headline)

InflationJuly-2026June-2026Change (%)
Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI)7.306.807.35%

Daily Indices

DayASPIS&P SL 20
Jul 1, 202622,232.256,206.51
Jul 2, 202622,229.716,204.54
Jul 3, 202622,191.956,194.22
Jul 6, 202622,093.516,167.05
Jul 7, 202621,970.796,135.50
Jul 8, 202621,812.626,099.52
Jul 9, 202621,704.456,066.49
Jul 10, 202621,773.256,077.46
Jul 13, 202621,557.236,022.19
Jul 14, 202621,424.715,997.00
Jul 15, 202621,426.435,988.62
Jul 16, 202621,449.236,004.99
Jul 17, 202621,420.805,999.68
Jul 20, 202621,208.105,943.22
Jul 21, 202621,160.655,945.01
Jul 22, 202621,149.565,932.62
Jul 23, 202621,206.925,945.87
Jul 24, 202621,206.795,942.56
Jul 27, 202621,191.575,948.74
Jul 28, 202621,249.845,961.40
Jul 30, 202621,148.715,946.03

Volume & Turnover

DayTurnoverVolume
Jul 1, 20261,070,232,332.2035,218,932.00
Jul 2, 20261,515,853,974.7547,443,144.00
Jul 3, 20261,541,395,976.3030,596,649.00
Jul 6, 20261,354,836,883.4041,750,337.00
Jul 7, 20261,536,551,264.8057,719,197.00
Jul 8, 20262,257,265,130.95210,210,250.00
Jul 9, 20261,438,491,687.50119,546,921.00
Jul 10, 20262,032,697,989.3565,378,801.00
Jul 13, 20261,036,760,575.3079,719,478.00
Jul 14, 20261,089,005,438.8048,658,217.00
Jul 15, 20261,228,891,341.7556,929,822.00
Jul 16, 20261,486,105,663.5543,274,154.00
Jul 17, 2026722,632,879.0531,937,447.00
Jul 20, 20262,635,824,431.4566,494,612.00
Jul 21, 20263,275,582,751.7538,528,773.00
Jul 22, 20263,530,991,805.0591,099,042.00
Jul 23, 20261,078,024,626.6537,740,442.00
Jul 24, 20262,449,995,039.4593,561,030.00
Jul 27, 20262,070,907,721.6565,143,785.00
Jul 28, 20262,018,117,646.4087,473,772.00
Jul 30, 20261,094,184,224.6531,448,744.00
Jul 31, 20264,349,169,081.65117,105,488.00

Tea Auction Prices (USD)

Month20262025202420232022202120202019
Jan2.732.782.662.772.862.682.512.54
Feb2.702.692.712.702.792.562.362.38
Mar2.692.692.692.692.612.432.132.38
April2.832.913.032.963.242.672.362.65
May3.023.023.202.712.992.712.512.73
June2.972.993.222.692.962.702.842.56
July2.983.023.302.473.312.653.042.58
Aug3.043.222.833.372.723.152.63
Sep2.943.272.853.332.733.082.54
Oct3.013.152.763.152.783.002.58
Nov2.993.092.743.052.832.782.61
Dec2.882.962.712.952.822.652.57

Tourist Arrivals

Tourist Arrivals2026202520242023202220212020
January277,327252,761208,253102,54582,3271,682228,434
February279,328240,217218,350107,63996,5073,366207,507
March183,979229,298209,181125,495106,5004,58171,370
April135,643174,608148,867105,49862,9804,1680
May145,745132,919112,12883,30930,2071,4970
June124,551138,241113,470100,38832,8561,6140
July196,845200,244187,810143,03947,2932,4290
August198,235164,609136,40537,7605,0400
September158,971122,140111,93829,80213,5470
October165,193135,907109,19942,02622,7710
November212,906184,158151,49659,75944,2940
December258,928248,592210,35291,96189,506393

India remained the leading source market in July 2026, followed by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, China, and France.

Primary Deposit & Lending Rates

Period (Year Month)AWDRAWPR
Jul 2026—10.67
Jun 20267.2010.39
May 20266.959.90
Apr 20266.869.57
Mar 20266.839.28
Feb 20266.839.35
Jan 20266.818.88
Dec 20256.789.07
Nov 20256.778.64
Oct 20256.798.31
Sep 20256.808.10
Aug 20256.827.97

CCPI Year on Year (%)

Month (Year Month)HeadlineFoodNon Food
Jul 20267.306.307.80
Jun 20266.803.608.40
May 20265.500.907.80
Apr 20265.402.806.80
Mar 20262.200.702.90
Feb 20261.600.202.30
Jan 20262.303.301.80
Dec 20252.103.001.80
Nov 20252.103.001.70
Oct 20252.103.501.40
Sep 20251.502.900.70
Aug 20251.202.000.80
Jul 2025-0.301.50-1.20

External Sector

Values are in USD million.

Month (Year Month)Official ReservesWorkers' RemittancesEarnings from Tourism
Jun 20266,458.00695.00151.10
May 20266,881.00847.00155.70
Apr 20266,766.00767.90157.10
Mar 20267,026.00814.80223.70
Feb 20267,270.00729.00352.00
Jan 20266,832.00751.10378.30
Dec 20256,825.00879.10308.60
Nov 20256,034.00673.40251.60
Oct 20256,216.00712.00186.10
Sep 20256,244.00695.70182.90
Aug 20256,178.00680.80258.90
Jul 20256,147.00697.30318.50
Jun 20256,081.00635.70169.50
Month (Year Month)ExportsImportsFuel ImportsImport (Non Fuel)
Jun 20261,143.801,972.30464.701,507.60
May 20261,224.302,192.10536.001,656.10
Apr 20261,074.102,456.70886.201,570.50
Mar 20261,254.302,134.10630.101,504.00
Feb 20261,057.801,833.80398.001,435.80
Jan 20261,148.701,803.30253.501,549.80
Dec 20251,158.002,155.20390.101,765.10
Nov 20251,047.801,778.50333.301,445.20
Oct 20251,149.402,156.80357.801,799.00
Sep 20251,138.502,048.60440.701,607.90
Aug 20251,282.301,696.50255.201,441.30
Jul 20251,302.201,882.20269.701,612.50

This briefing is prepared by SRP Research for general information only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. Figures are reproduced from the SRP International Financial & Economic Analysis for July 2026 (external-sector figures to June 2026) and are subject to revision.

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